Folks select the place to dwell primarily based on a number of underlying elements: proximity to the place they work, most popular facilities like college high quality or local weather, and connections to social networks of household and mates. However the pandemic could have essentially modified a few of these elements—loosening the necessity to dwell inside each day commuting distance of workplaces and growing choice for bigger houses to accommodate telework. In response to prevailing media narratives, the pandemic has “supercharged” suburbanization charges and even hastened the demise of U.S. cities.
Homebuilders responded to this demand shift in 2020 by growing single-family residence building in low-density areas, reminiscent of small metro space suburbs and small cities. The common measurement of latest single-family houses additionally elevated in 2021, following a interval of decline between 2016 and 2020.
But there may be nonetheless widespread uncertainty round what is definitely occurring through the pandemic—and our post-pandemic future. One level is evident: Areas stay extremely complicated. And no matter short-term adjustments could also be occurring, planners and different regional leaders can not lose sight of long-term wants: growing the provision of smaller, reasonably priced houses in compact, climate-friendly growth patterns. Leaders can’t simply plan for the present second; they should plan for a extra resilient future.
Did the pandemic increase demand for suburban dwelling—or simply proceed long-term tendencies?
Taking a look at information on county-level inhabitants adjustments through the first yr of the pandemic reveals some proof of flight from the densest, costliest cities and main metro areas. However this largely continues pre-pandemic tendencies. Between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, many core city counties (these residence to the biggest metropolis inside a metro space) continued to expertise higher inhabitants losses than their neighboring suburban counties.
As an example this, Determine 1 reveals the inhabitants change throughout three pairs of city and suburban counties: New York County (Manhattan) and Nassau County (suburban Lengthy Island); Michigan’s Wayne County (residence to Detroit) and suburban Oakland County; and Texas’ Dallas County and suburban Collin County. In all three circumstances, the core city counties misplaced inhabitants extra quickly between 2020 and 2021 in comparison with their neighboring suburban counties.
However extra speedy inhabitants development—or decrease inhabitants decline—amongst suburban counties through the pandemic just isn’t new.
As Determine 2 reveals, counties that noticed increased inhabitants development from 2010 to 2020 additionally noticed extra development (or no less than smaller inhabitants losses) from 2020 to 2021. Suburban Collin County far outpaced development in Dallas County (and certainly, most massive U.S. counties) through the 2010 to 2020 interval. The plain outlier is New York County (Manhattan), which suffered large inhabitants losses through the first yr of the pandemic, after rising through the second half of the earlier decade. Not coincidentally, New York can also be among the many costliest housing markets within the U.S. and has a massive variety of jobs that may be achieved remotely.
Additionally notable: Whereas the pandemic could have inspired some folks to flee costly housing markets, it doesn’t look like attracting residents to low-cost city areas which have seen long-term inhabitants decline, like Detroit. That is according to analysis exhibiting that city facilities reminiscent of eating places, museums, and leisure venues are essential elements in attracting and retaining residents.
However extra seemingly than not, these current tendencies could solely signify a brief blip, so it’s essential to contextualize them as continuations of longer-term tendencies. Change-of-address information from the U.S. Postal Service reveals that whereas there have been some pandemic-related spikes throughout March, April, and December 2020 concentrated amongst particular person and momentary strikes, as of mid-2021, these tendencies have normalized to the place they had been earlier than the pandemic. And information from Condominium Checklist’s nationwide lease report reveals that whereas will increase in lease costs dipped from March to December 2020, lease worth development since January 2021 has spiked 17.8%, and by April 2021, had totally rebounded in almost all city, suburban, and exurban markets—no less than equal to pre-Covid ranges, if not increased.
These early indicators counsel that the pandemic brought about large disruptions within the quick time period, largely on account of its sudden nature and the lack of regional leaders to answer such sharp adjustments in housing demand. As a result of rigid nature of our land use plans—particularly in cities and inner-ring suburbs—we’ve been constructing houses within the fallacious locations and within the fallacious methods. As demand for larger houses spiked, we noticed planners focus building in locations the place they’ll construct most shortly (exurbs) with out prioritizing neighborhood-serving retail, density, and proximity in neighborhood design.
Employers, employees, researchers, and policymakers don’t but know whether or not the expanded telework/hybrid workplace mannequin will final, and for what number of employees. This uncertainty additionally deters making long-term investments, reminiscent of updating land use plans and constructing infrastructure.
Classes for policymakers: Preserve long-term targets in thoughts and improve short-term flexibility
Whether or not the response to the pandemic is a short-term blip or longer-term sample, it has not diminished our collective want for higher resilience—supporting our skill to dwell in secure, inexpensive, and climate-friendly communities. Meaning having smaller, extra inexpensive housing, which permits employees in any respect earnings ranges to dwell near jobs and facilities. It additionally means having safer, extra dependable, and extra inexpensive transportation choices. And it means striving for diminished greenhouse fuel emissions and higher local weather certainty and adaptation.
Regional leaders shouldn’t overreact to short-term headlines a few supposed suburban “gold rush.” They should take a step again and acknowledge the uncertainty and complexity surrounding them—together with the necessity to higher analyze and assess their area’s evolving considerations. Pursuing this sort of method is hard, as a result of the indicators are conflicting in numerous components of the nation and the long-run impacts of the pandemic aren’t but identified.
In mild of those unknowns, post-pandemic planning ought to deal with baking in additional flexibility and greatest practices into our land use plans to organize us for each potential future spikes in housing demand and the overall long-term pattern of accelerating suburban and exurban inhabitants development. This implies embedding suburban retrofits and urbanization into suburban planning, which incorporates extra multifamily housing close to transit, mixed-use city facilities, and investing in suburban public transit to job facilities to advertise equitable, higher-density, transit-oriented growth. The Mosaic District in Fairfax County, Va. is an instance: a 10-year suburban retrofit venture that changed single-use business areas with higher-density, mixed-use, transit-oriented facilities.
Finally, even when pandemic-related tendencies proceed, incorporating extra flexibility and greatest practices into our land use planning is a should for planners and different regional leaders to navigate our post-pandemic future.
